![]() Great insights on improving decision makingįound out about this book via Michael Mauboussin discussing it on twitter - a highly credible source on decision making material - and the book did not disappoint. PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio. Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.īy shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. ![]() For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Īnnie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Įven the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
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